We will explore the many approaches that forecasters can take to make their recommendations robust, even as they embrace the uncertainty of the real world. By using the language of probability, a well-designed forecast helps managers understand future uncertainty so they can make better plans that inform ongoing decision making. Turn on the headlights, focus on the road ahead, know the limits of both the car and the driver, and, if the road is particularly challenging, get a map - or even ask others for directions. Such shouts should not invoke the paranoia of Chicken Little’s falling sky instead, they should promote the development of contingency plans to both manage risks and rapidly take advantage of unexpected opportunities.įortunately, better forecasting can be accomplished almost as simply as improving Drucker’s driving challenge. In many cases, good forecasting involves recognizing, and sometimes shouting from the rooftops about, the inherent uncertainty of the estimates, and the fact that things can go very bad very quickly. A good forecast leads, through either direct recommendations or informal conversation, to robust actions - actions that will be worth taking, no matter how the realities of the future unfold. It means accepting the role that uncertainty plays in the world, engaging in a continuous improvement process of building your firm’s forecasting capability, and paving the way for corporate success.
This lack of attention to the quality of forecasting is a shame, because an effective vehicle for looking ahead can make all the difference in the success of a long-term investment or strategic decision.Ĭompetence in forecasting does not mean being able to predict the future with certainty. And given the frequency of sandbagged (deliberately underestimated) sales forecasts and managed earnings, we even wonder how often the scale is rigged. Too many companies treat the forecasting process like a carnival game of guessing someone’s weight.
Nonetheless, few forecasters receive any formal training, or even expert apprenticeship. Simply complaining about the difficulty does not help. Good forecasts hold the key to good plans. If this property does not close with Brokers Trust as the listing agent then this challenge will be considered to be cancelled and there will not be a winner.Peter Drucker once commented that “trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.” Though we agree with Drucker that forecasting is hard, managers are constantly asked to predict the future - be it to project future product sales, anticipate company profits, or plan for investment returns.Closing must be with Fitzburgh Realty as the listing agent.In the event that the contact information provided with the winning guess is not working and/or the person with the winning guess does not reply with confirmation of notification of being the winner within 5 business days of being contacted a the phone and email provided, then that winner will be replaced with the next closest guess (or guesses).Only one guess per person is allowed - if there is more than one price guess by the same person, then only the first submitted guess will be entered.Prize money will be given within 10 days of the closing of the property using Zelle to the cell or email indicated the participant(s).In the case of a tie, the $250 prize money will be divided evenly amongst the winners.Winning prize is $250 will go to the winner(s) and another $250 will be donated to Homes Fur All - a 501c3 Non-profit Organization.Whoever guesses closest to the final SOLD price as indicated on the MLS is the winner.
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